Because the probability of a set losing to a straight is about 15%-30%, it is recommended to bet quickly on the flop to avoid slow play, for example, if you have pocket Jacks (JJ) and the flop shows J, 9, 8, consider check folding.
Why does a set always lose to a straight?
In Texas Hold’em, the probability of losing to a straight is between 10% and 20%. If you have a pocket pair of 9s (99) and the flop shows 7, 8, 10, your opponent may have a 6 or J to form a straight, and you are likely to lose.
In low stakes online poker (such as $0.05/$0.10), players will chase straights and flushes. If you do not protect your set, you may be defeated by your opponent at a lower cost, for example, if you hit a set on the flop but choose to slow play instead of raising, your opponent will chase the straight.
Take a typical hand as an example: you are in the BB position with pocket Tens (TT), and the flop shows T, J, K, your opponent may have Q or A, Q, and you may lose if they form a straight on the turn or river. Professional poker player Phil Hellmuth once said: “In poker, it’s not about how to win, but how to avoid losing.”
Suppose you have pocket Kings (KK) in a hand, and the flop shows K, 8, A, you bet 2/3 of the pot, your opponent calls, the turn shows J, you bet 85% of the pot, your opponent continues to call, the river shows 7, you go all-in, and your opponent calls and has 9, 10, forming a straight, and your set loses to the straight.
When to check fold
Check folding is a good choice against the board, for example, when you have a set on the flop, and your opponent suddenly makes a large bet or goes all-in on the turn, indicating a possible straight or flush. Check folding can avoid losing more money, as the probability of forming a straight is about 30%.
When the board shows (such as both a straight and flush being possible), check folding is necessary, for example, you have pocket 9s (99), the flop shows 9, 8, 7, the turn shows 6, and your opponent goes all-in, immediate check folding can reduce losses, as the probability of chasing straights and flushes exceeds 60%.
Avoid excessive slow play
Slow play can induce opponents to bet, disguising the strength of your hand when you have strong cards, but it can give your opponent a low-cost chance to make a hand. Professional poker player Tom Dwan‘s words: “In poker, incorrect slow play can be more costly than any mistake.” For example, if you have pocket Jacks (JJ) and the flop shows J, 9, 8, if you choose to slow play and not raise, your opponent will have a low-cost opportunity to form a straight or flush on the turn or river, reversing the game.
The win rate of betting actively with a set is 15%-20% higher than slow play. If you have pocket Tens (TT) on the flop, and the flop shows 10, 7, 6, choosing slow play, the turn shows 8, and your opponent calls and forms a straight on the river, your set ultimately loses.
It is more dangerous when the board shows multiple possible hands, for example, you have pocket Kings (KK), the flop shows K, Q, J, if you choose to slow play, the probability of a straight on the board is 30%, and the probability of a flush is 20%, slow play may lose the game.