Overview of Winning Hand Frequencies
The most common hands in poker to win with are two pairs or one pair. Two pairs win 31% of the time, and single pair 27%. For example, royal flush hands are extremely rare and make up under 0.001% of all winning hands.
If you look at the historical data for thousands of poker tournaments, it is clear that some higher value hands like a full house or flush also have very good win rates, but they occur far less frequently than two pairs or single pairs. For instance, full houses win around 12% of the time, and flushes make up about 6% of wins.
Go back to the 2003 World Series of Poker where Chris Moneymaker was able to win with a full house on the last hand.
Example Hand:
Moneymaker’s hand to win: 9 of spades, 9 of hearts, 9 of clubs, 8 of diamonds; full house
In a similar example from the 2010 WSOP Main Event, Jonathan Duhamel won a crucial pot in a tense spot by calling with two pairs.
Example Hand:
The final winning hand of Duhamel: K ♠️, K ♥️, Q ♠️, Q ♥️ (Two pairs)
High stakes cash game, 2015: Phil Hellmuth vs. Daniel Negreanu
In a key hand, Phil Hellmuth knocked out Daniel Negreanu holding the pocket aces he needed to defeat his two pairs.
Example Hand:
Phil Hellmuth — ♠️ A ♥️ A (One Pair)
Always listen to what the professionals like Daniel Negreanu and Phil Ivey say about familiarizing yourself with your fundamentals. As Negreanu likes to say, “You can’t be a winning no-limit player if you don’t know how to play pairs and two pairs in Texas Hold’em.” Ivey notes, “The majority of your money is going to be coming from hands like this. The difference in approach between the amateurs and the pros is realizing when to push and when to be cautious with pairs.”
Fedor Holz came to the same realization during the 2016 High Roller for One Drop. He won many key pots with hands such as pairs and two pairs, demonstrating his knowledge of how often certain hands come up statistically and was able to use it to take complete control of the table and win the tournament.
Example Hand:
Fedor Holz Hand: ♠️ 10, ♥️ 10, ♠️ J, ♣️ J (Two pairs)
By knowing that two of a kind and pair hands are the most common winning combinations, you can properly arrange your strategy around these types of hands. For instance, if you have a pocket pair before the flop, knowing how often that hand will win when heads up can help you determine where to raise, call, or fold.
Justin Bonomo and Heaps of Information
Has this final table been a command performance from the overwhelming chip leader, Justin Bonomo? In a large pot between himself and three other players on the final hand of the tournament, Bonomo’s tactical two pair hands paid off again to grant him the win and significant first-place prize.
Example Hand:
Justin Bonomo — ♠️ 7, ♥️ 7, ♦️ 5, ♣️ 5 -> Two Pairs
Pairs dominate, so do two pairs.
Two 2 pairs in Texas hold’em and alone of one pair.
One reason why two pairs and a pair are so strong as hands is because they appear so frequently. You win with two pairs about 31% and one pair is won in about 27% of the cases.
Illustrative Hand – How it happens commonly
Here are some of the hands you could expect in a typical gaming session:
Two Pairs: ♠️ 8, ♥️ 8, ♣️ 4, ♥️ 4
One Pair: ♠️ K, ♥️ K
We may not observe higher-ranked hands like full houses or flushes land on this ranking more often to appear; these are statistically rarer although many times run together.
Historical Game Analysis
The 2004 WSOP Main Event, for example, saw Greg Raymer winning countless hands with just pairs and two pairs to take the title.
Example Hand:
Greg Raymer: ♠️ Q, ♥️ Q, ♣️ 10, ♦️ 10 (Two Pair)
Player Insights: Why Strategic Streams
Two pairs and pairs are also highlighted by other top players such as Phil Hellmuth, Doyle Brunson. Hellmuth writes, “It [no limit play] is not scoring the homers in baseball or getting the occasional fast break in basketball; it’s like making free throws – a skill you must have to win consistently.” Brunson explains, “Two pair and a pair are poker’s meat-and-potatoes hands.”
Live Hand Example: Real-World Application
In a high-stakes game in 2011, Daniel Negreanu also got it in with jacks. His opponent had underrated the power of a mere pair and was caught trying to attempt bluff so his downfall came at a cost for underestimating Negreanu.
Example Hand:
Daniel Negreanu (♠️ J, ♥️ J) → 2 ♣️, A ♦️, 9 ♥️, K ♥️, 3 ♣️
Why Two Pairs and Pairs Dominate
When playing two pairs and top pairs there are a few things to keep in mind, including:
Aggressive Betting: If you have a strong pair or two pairs, aggressive betting can discourage those with weaker hands from staying in, making your pot even greater likelihood winning.
Example Scenario:
You hold ♠️ 9, ♥️ 9. Flop: ♣️ 3, ♦️ 9, ♠️ K (Set of Nines on the flop leads to Aggression)
Table Position: Where you sit at a given table causes your game with small to medium pairs. Sitting in a late position gives you the ability to play last in a hand, as well as notice what your opponents do before you act, which is an excellent strategic leverage point.
Example Scenario:
For example, in the photo above with you holding ♠️ 10, ♥️ 10 and seeing a flop like ♦️ 4, ♠️ 7, ♥️ J: Watching how others are betting helps you determine whether to raise or call.
Bluffing: Sometimes, it is a good idea to bluff with the pairs here – particularly if the board will not support any powerful hands.
Example Scenario:
Bluffing, with spades 6, hearts 6 and an open board of ♠️ (2), ♦️ (5), ♥️ (Q), will likely get players out of the hand.
Bluff – Example Hand
Phil Ivey famously bluffed his way to victory with sevens against Kent Lundmark, making it appear that he was holding a far stronger hand.
Example Hand:
Phil Ivey’s winning hand: ♠️ 7, ♥️ 7 (One Pair)
Knowing When 2 Pairs or Set Missed
Whether or not a pair results in the best four-card hand (or two pairs) is dependent on the board. For example, if the board indicates straight or flush possibilities, your set or two pair may be not so powerful.
Example Scenario:
On a flop of ♣️ 3, ♦️ 7, ♥️ K holding ♠️ Q, ♥️ Q, you can be pretty sure your pair is good unless someone starts to show something out of character that would suggest a big hand.
The Impact of Hand Rankings on Wins
Hand rankings are a primary pursuit for any poker player, but what do these ranks mean in terms of your winning odds?
Texas Hold’em hand rankings list below for details of each category (HAND RANKING IN TEXAS HOLDEM FROM HIGHEST TO LOWEST).
Past Data & Frequency of Hands Ranked
Royal Flush: 0.00015% of hands
Straight Flush: About 0.02% of the time.
Prospects for four of a kind: Less than 0.1% of hands
Full House: 2.6% of hands
Flush: Around 3.03% of hands
Straight: 4.62%
Three of a Kind: 4.83% of Hands
About 23.5% of the time, it consists of a two pairs.
One Pair: ~42.3% of hands
High Card: 0% of hands remaining
Example Hand: Royal Flush Least common
Jennifer Harman hit a royal flush in 2007 during a high-stakes game. The ♠️ 10, ♠️ J, ♠️ Q, ♠️ K, ♠️ A were enough to win the pot and illustrated how rarely you see a hand as powerful as that.
Example Hand:
Jennifer Harman’s Hand: ♠️ 10, ♠️ J, ♠️ Q, ♠️ K, ♠️ A (Royal Flush)
Sample Wallet: Full House Immortality
In the 2012 WSOP, Phil Hellmuth wins an important pot with a full house, ♠️ 8, ♥️ 8, ♣️ 8, ♠️ 4, ♥️ 4.
Example Hand:
Phil Hellmuth: ♠️ 8, ♥️ 8, ♣️ 8, ♠️ 4, ♥️ 4 (Full House)
Example Hand: Flush Strength
In one of the biggest tournaments of 2015, Vanessa Selbst won a massive pot with 2-5-7-9-J in spades.
Example Hand:
Vanessa Selbst wins with Flush: 2, 5, 7, 9, J.
Sample Hand: Two Pairs Utility
Jason Koon 2018 — High Stakes Hand: Two pairs, ♠️ Q, ♥️ Q, ♠️ 5, ♥️ 5 → Won enormous pot
Example Hand:
Jason Koon’s: ♠️ Q, ♥️ Q, ♠️ 5, ♥️ 5 (Two Pairs)
An Example Hand: Consistency in One Pair
In poker, strong pairs mean consistent power, considering you play with them aggressively and cleverly. ♠️ K, ♥️ K — a single pair of one or another rank that wins during this critical hand has become Liv Boeree’s trump card in the 2019 PokerStars Championship.
Example Hand:
Boeree shows one pair of kings: K♠️, K♥️
Player Insights: The Goldilocks of Hand Rankings
As far as poker legends are concerned, this is one of the first lessons any player should learn when they start playing poker. While Doyle Brunson in his seminal work Super System notably claiming that you take a crack at high-ranking hands, he added that mastering play from the weak and vulnerable is actually more critical as those are the hands most often determining outcomes.
Phil Ivey comments: “One of the most essential things you need to know in poker is how your hand stacks up versus the board and other hands your opponents could have.”
An Example Hand: Using Your Hand Rankings Strategically Bullets
Doug Polk demonstrated his strategic prowess using a straight with this hand during a high-stakes online tournament in 2020.
Example Hand:
Polk holding: ♠️ 6, ♣️ 7, ♦️ 8, ♠️ 9, ♥️ 10 (Straight)
Statistical Insights on Hand Outcomes
Players use this information, such as the probability that you will win with a pair of two pairs, to increase their expectation when they manage to be dealt these hands.
Example Scenario:
For example, you know where YOU are in the range of possible hands pre-flop when you hold 33 or KK, i.e., very low in relation to what your opponents could have so can bet confidently accordingly.
What Numbers Reveal About Hand Results
From data in the World Series of Poker (WSOP) and other major tournaments and taking payouts to account, here is how often different hands come up and what are the chances that a specific hand will win:
Royal Flush: 0.001% or less Wins almost every time it shows up.
Straight Flush: About 0. Wins about 99% of the time.
Four of a Kind: 0.1 % of the time Wins about 95% of the time.
Full House: About 2.6% of the time Wins around 90% of the time.
Flush: 3.03% of the time Wins about 85% of the time.
Straight: 4.62% Wins around 75% of the time.
Three of a Kind: About 4.83% of the time Wins around 70% of the time.
Two Pair: 23.5% of the time Wins about 55% of the time.
One Pair: 42.3% Frequency Wins about 30% of the time.
High Card: Happens the rest of the time. Wins about 17% of the time.
Rarity of a Royal Flush in Example Hand
You might remember this one; it was a big deal at the 2007 WSOP when Jennifer Harman turned over her royal flush.
Example Hand:
Winning hand of Jennifer Harman: ♠️ 10, ♠️ J, ♠️ Q, ♠️ K, ♠️ A — Royal Flush
Rarity: For as close to a sure win as a hand like that is, statistically, its rarity puts it more in the “dream hand” than “strategic goal” category.
Example Hand: Four of a Kind
In 2014 WSOP, Daniel Colman won an important pot with four of a kind, ♥️ 9, ♣️ 9.
Example Hand:
What Colman had: 9 ♠️, 9 ♥️, 9 ♣️, 9 ♦️ (Four of a Kind)
Take Away: Knowing that 4OAK wins 95% of the time, you can make powerful actions when you have this hand.
Hand Example: Force with Full Houses Benefits
During the 2012 WSOP, Phil Hellmuth picked up a big pot with a full house 8-8-8-4-4. Full houses have a win rate of about 90% and are one of the best hands.
Example Hand:
Phil Hellmuth Winning Hand: ♠️ 8- ♥️ 8- ♣️ 8- ♠️ 4- ♥️ 4 (Full House)
Outcome: Full Houses are compelling hands that come up more often than Four of a Kinds or Straight Flushes, in this way giving players progressively sensible shots at winning.
Example Hand: Flush Strength
Flush (5 to J of spades) — High card: J (won a big hand vs. Ole Schemion in the 2015 EPT Grand Final. Flushes have ~85% winning percentage.
Example Hand:
Ole Schemion: ♠️ 2, ♠️ 5, ♠️ 7, ♠️ 9, ♠️ J (Flush) Winner
Flushes can be an impactful part of any player’s arsenal due to the fact that they are stronger and more frequent compared to a full house.
Case Study Hand: Two Pairs Case
John Cynn Puts It All Together in a Vital Hand; Two Pair, ♠️ Q, ♥️ Q, ♠️ 5, ♥️ 5 (WSOP 2018) A little over 55% are the winning rates for two pairs.
Example Hand:
Cynn’s hand — ♠️ Q, ♥️ Q, ♠️ 5, ♥️ 5 (Two Pairs)
What do you expect on Poker Impact: Two main winning hands of the game are covered by these two pairs.
An Example Hand: Pair Consistency
Liv Boeree played her way to a medium pot with one pair, ♠️ K, ♥️ K during the 2019 PokerStars Championship — Pairs, no matter how basic wins around 30% of the time.
Example Hand:
Not sure what Liv Boeree got with her winning hand, ♠️ K, ♥️ K (One Pair)
Najafipour’s pair of nines is the type of bread-and-butter hold ’em hand that happens almost every hand and wins a lot of pots.
By adding knowledge of the relevant stats into the preparation for match day, you can enhance your playing performance.
Identify the strength of your hand: Be conscious that full houses win 90% of the time, while flushes win 85%.
Concentrate on Pairs: Two pairs and pairs are the most probable other variations of winning a hand.
Adjust to your Opponents: If you know they can have worse hands, you might be able to pressure them or bluff better.
Example Scenario:
Example: If you have ♠️ 7, ♠️ 7 and the board is ♠️ 3, ♣️ 7, ♦️ K, ♠️ 9, ♥️ 2 you would know it’s safe to bet high as you have three of a kind in a game where there can be little at any genuine risk against most possible hands from opponents.