No, shoving all-in with 33 against a loose-aggressive villain’s 6x BB raise with 54 big blinds is too risky. Your 33 has only around 32% equity against typical calling ranges.
Is it Wise to Shove All-in with 33 Against
So, with 54 big blinds left, facing a LAG (loose-aggressive player) who opens to 6 times the big blind, is it wise to shove all-in with 33? Absolutely not. Let’s break it down.
Imagine you’re heads-up in a poker tournament. Your opponent is a typical LAG, applying pressure every hand. He only opened to 6 big blinds. You’re holding pocket threes with 54 big blinds in your stack. You might think, “What the heck, he’s bluffing.”
First, consider the numbers. When you shove all-in with 33 and get called, you’re always in a coin flip or dominated situation. Assuming his calling range is AQ, AK, and 99+. Mathematically, your equity in this scenario is at a disadvantage. You’re up against a range like TT+, AK, where your equity is about 32%. That’s not great odds, right?
Second, consider his raise size. It’s a massive 6 times the big blind, which means more in a heads-up match. This isn’t a normal raise; it’s huge and indicates strong strength.
Now, let’s talk strategy. You’re risking 54 big blinds here. That’s a lot! In heads-up play, especially in tournaments, you must preserve your chips and be more selective in your spots. If you risk your 54 big blinds against a marginal raise range with pocket 3s, even targeting only a few combos or variants (usually squeezing any bet only on AQ+J flop), then even with 54 big blinds, no matter how good anyone is at reading hands, it’s tough in practice because the opponent might just fold since a “donkey” player here would make meaningless all-ins.
For example: Flop J-7-2. By calling pre-flop instead of shoving, you can better read his range. If he checks, you can continue betting; if he bets big here, you can just fold. He might even check to you, letting you take down the pot with a small bet.
Consider fold equity. Or perhaps consider the fifth level to beat this LAG? However, if a LAG raises 6 times or more the big blind, they’re likely happy to call an all-in. If he calls, you’re almost certainly up against two high cards or a bigger pair. That’s the best-case scenario—any two high cards against your 33 have about 50% equity.
Example. 2020 WSOP—a known LAG opened big with 6-5 suited, and Player B called with pocket 9s. They both saw the flop…bb didn’t lead post-flop, while Player B got maximum value on a favorable board. If he had shoved pre-flop, he might have been folded out, losing potential chips. Your 33 is much worse than those 9s.
How Tournament Stages Affect All-in Decisions
Early Stages
At the start of a poker tournament, everyone’s chips are plentiful relative to the blinds. Here, your 54 big blinds are still a significant portion of your starting stack.
For example, in a $1,000 buy-in tournament, players start with 20,000 chips and 50/100 blinds—if starting at level 2 with over eight levels left to play (about seven days), these are still a lot of big blinds, as they equal nearly six full starting stacks, bringing us closer to mid-stacks against decent contenders, at least not everyone is a short stack. However, shoving 33 against a LAG’s 6BB raise at this stage is not an aggressive move; it’s also risky.
Middle Stages
As the tournament moves into the mid-stages, blinds increase, and chip stacks fluctuate more drastically. Your 54 big blinds might now be only 32,400 chips as blinds rise to perhaps 300/600. At this point, the dynamics among players change again.
On the other hand, a 6 times big blind raise is a big raise. Shoving 33, when called, leaves you either flipping or way behind, which is not ideal for building your stack for later hands.
Bubble Stage
The bubble stage is when the tournament nears the money. For instance, if there are 100 players left and the top 90 get paid, players tighten up at this stage, not wanting to bust out on the bubble. Imagine you have 54 big blinds, roughly equivalent to 108,000 chips, while blinds are likely around 1,000/2,000.
Here, fold equity becomes important. Players want to fold more because there are short stacks. But shoving 33 against a BB open is still risky. Though your opponent may sometimes fold weaker hands, you’re likely facing a made hand if called. The bubble stage is where you play very tightly and aggressively when it’s your turn, not with 33.
Post-bubble Stage
After the bubble bursts, the game usually returns to a more “fun” atmosphere. Once players secure some payout, they might play more aggressively, often looking to accumulate chips quickly against shorter stacks. If the blinds are 2,000/4,000, you now have 54 (215-93=1221) big blinds.
Final Table Bubble
Even at the final table, dynamics change. Players become very strategic, realizing the value of each position is greater than average. For example, blinds might be 5,000/10,000, so your 54 big blinds are roughly 540,000 chips.
In such a high-chip environment, even a strong hand like 33 becomes more tense. Chip preservation becomes more critical as the cost of busting before the final table is high.
Final Table
Every decision at the final table is magnified. Blinds might be 10,000/20,000, and your 54 big blinds are around 1,040 units. Here, stack sizes and payout jumps dictate strategy. This could mean raising against a LAG’s pressure, but shoving 33 is very high risk.
Assume you’re third in chips and the LAG is the chip leader. Shoving might lead to a coin flip or a dominated clash.
Heads-up
In heads-up play, the environment changes entirely. Assuming blinds are 20,000/40,000 (meaning your 54 big blinds now total 2,160,000 chips), at this stage, aggression is the name of the game since it’s now heads-up, hand value increases.
Even here, shoving 33 against a 6 times big blind raise is not optimal. Knowing this can help extend potential action into post-flop play. A smaller 3bet or calling pre-flop to hit the flop and match your opponent might be more effective, as it allows you to rely on more than just hand strength.
Using ICM to Make Better Poker Decisions
Taking chip EV (expected value) decisions at a tournament final table can sometimes be misleading. Using ICM, losing chips is more significant than gaining the same amount. This importance is more pronounced near the bubble and final table as prize jumps become substantial.
Suppose you’re 11th in chips in a 100-player league, with the top 10 getting paid. You enter the table with a substantial stack, but a few very short stacks remain. A hyper-aggressive player shoves, and you hold something like A8. Normally, this might be a call, but mixing ICM, you can make him nervous and fold. If you call and lose for some reason, you bust right before the money. Folding helps preserve your chips longer while some short stacks likely bust, increasing your chances of cashing.
In fact, ICM is more challenging at the final table. For instance, suppose you’re third in chips with around 1,200,000 chips, and blinds are 10k/20k. The jump from third to second is substantial. You see pocket 9s, and the chip leader shoves. Calling and losing here would be very painful as it might cripple your stack or drop you to fifth or sixth place. ICM might indicate a fold to protect your stack and wait for another (more favorable) spot to exploit against the short stacks.
You need to know how to calculate ICM or use many free online ICM calculators. One example is you’re second in chips with 2,500,000, and blinds are 50k/100k—the remaining players are only &. You have AQ, and the chip leader shoves. In a tournament, a relevant situation is calling an all-in; your ICM calculator might show this call could reduce your equity as you might bust fifth instead of protecting your stack and potentially moving up to second or even first.
If you only need to survive a few more positions to cash, play tight and prefer ultra-low volatility plays unless you’re the shortest stack. After the bubble, the game can change quickly; survival often outweighs chip accumulation.
If you’re the big stack, mid-stacks will succumb to ICM pressure—they should. Of course, if you’re the short stack, try finding good spots to make players fold (open-shoving).
In high-pressure ICM situations, people often lose their minds, overestimating hands like ATo or KJ, thinking they can call an all-in. Remember, the risk of busting often outweighs the reward.
Even in ICM situations, position matters. Early tight, late loose still emphasizes playing tight from early positions and loose from late positions if you’re serious about winning more pots.
Tournament parameters change quickly. Be willing to adjust tactics based on chip changes and player eliminations. Sticking 100% to any one strategy without considering ICM leads to costly mistakes.